It looks like the leak is rooted at the allocation here:
https://github.com/llvm/llvm-project/blob/1a155ee7de3b62a2fabee86fb470a1554fadc54d/clang/lib/Sema/SemaTemplateInstantiateDecl.cpp#L3857
The VarTemplateSpecializationDecl is allocated using placement new which uses the AST structure for ownership: https://github.com/llvm/llvm-project/blob/1a155ee7de3b62a2fabee86fb470a1554fadc54d/clang/lib/AST/DeclBase.cpp#L99
The problem is the TemplateArgumentListInfo inside https://github.com/llvm/llvm-project/blob/1a155ee7de3b62a2fabee86fb470a1554fadc54d/clang/include/clang/AST/DeclTemplate.h#L2721
This object contains a vector which does not use placement new: https://github.com/llvm/llvm-project/blob/1a155ee7de3b62a2fabee86fb470a1554fadc54d/clang/include/clang/AST/TemplateBase.h#L564
Apparently ASTTemplateArgumentListInfo should be used instead https://github.com/llvm/llvm-project/blob/1a155ee7de3b62a2fabee86fb470a1554fadc54d/clang/include/clang/AST/TemplateBase.h#L575
Can we make it a prerequisite that the argument has to be nonnull and thus we can pass in a const reference instead?