It turns out that (uaddo X, Carry) is tranformed into (uaddo_carry X, 0, Carry) whenever the carry is an actual carry. This defeats the pattern matched by combineCarryDiamond when the uaddo is combined before combineCarryDiamond had the chance to do its magic.
This is exhibited in D152928 but I have not been able to reliably tirgger that error on main.