The restrictions added in D131704 were not sufficient to avoid all non-constant expression contexts. In particular constant initialization cases.
We need to check EvaluatingDecl to detect if the variable we are initializing is constexpr or not.
At this point it looks like this is the remaining case affecting various projects with this diagnostic.
You already know that VD is nonnull, so no need for that check, and we can remove the predicate entirely because you're setting ConstexprVar based on isConstexpr() anyway.