I added a diagnostic along the lines of -Wpessimizing-move to detect return x = y suppressing copy elision, but I don't know if the diagnostic is really worth it. Anyway, here are the places where my diagnostic reported that copy elision would have been possible if not for the assignment.
P1155R1 in the post-San-Diego WG21 (C++ committee) mailing discusses whether WG21 should fix this pitfall by just changing the core language to permit copy elision in cases like these.
(Kona update: The bulk of P1155 is proceeding to CWG review, but specifically *not* the parts that explored the notion of permitting copy-elision in these specific cases.)
Would an alternative fix for this be to write ref-qualified overloads of opX=, then use them like:
? (or, I suppose, "BranchProbability Prob(*this); return std::move(Prob) += RHS;")